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做空机构或将迎来寒冬

LEO SCHWARTZ
2025-02-16

标志着一个时代的结束

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香橼研究所有者兼创始人安德鲁·莱福特(左)与兴登堡研究公司创始人内特·安德森。图片来源:FROM LEFT: PATRICK T. FALLON—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES; BONNIE JO MOUNT—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES

前救护车司机内特·安德森最初于2020年闯入公众视野。当时,他实锤了电动汽车公司Nikola的视频造假。在该视频中,Nikola的卡车看起来正在靠自身动力前行,而真实情况是,车辆是在下坡路上滑行。安德森的揭发让这家公司的首席执行官锒铛入狱,也让安德森创建的做空机构——兴登堡研究公司(Hindenburg Research)成为了美国企业史上最令人畏惧的公司名之一。

1月15日,安德森宣布公司即将关停的消息标志着一个时代的结束,其知名做空机构存活了不到10年的时间。不过这期间,该公司发布了诸多揭露企业谎言和失职行为的尖锐报道,并经常性地让市场为之一震。兴登堡的这些调查由公司仅有的11名员工撰写,但通过X上的90万粉丝大肆传播。这些调查将目标瞄准了Block公司和阿达尼集团(Adani Group)这类公司,在这个网红股炒作盛行以及估值狂飙的年代,上述调查成为了做空操作的风向标。

兴登堡还帮助组建“激进”空头,一般是那些规模较小的公司,甚至是个人,这些空头会发起针对这些公司的公众宣传活动,以拉低其股价,这在华尔街和投资文化中十分常见。像安德森和安德鲁•莱福特创建的知名做空机构会娴熟地使用社交媒体或参加电视节目,再结合其调查记者兼股票交易商的身份,往往能在这一过程中赚的盆满钵满。

尽管无孔不入,但知名空头的日子或将进入倒计时状态。长期以来,很多公司高管对他们的交易手段不屑一顾,并充满疑虑。此外,大盘趋势和监管方也为做空操作带来了更大的压力。当前,莱福特正围绕一个重大法庭案件与司法部和证券交易委员会对峙。

将于2025年9月接受庭审的莱福特表示,这些对自己的指控带来了一种寒蝉效应。他对《财富》杂志说:“受此影响,三思而后行的风气席卷了整个行业。”

尽管其他知名激进做空机构依然处于活跃状态,包括浑水研究(Muddy Waters Research)的卡森·布洛克,但兴登堡的离开意味着该领域的江河日下,也意味着做空行业损失了一名最坚定的拥护者。

危机四伏的做空行业

做空机构已在美国市场潜行了数十年的时间,有一些因对抗大型集团而成为了华尔街传奇。最知名的案例可能莫过于投资公司尼克斯联合基金(Kynikos Associates)负责人吉姆·查诺斯,他在00年代初帮助扳倒了安然(Enron)。然而,做空机构一直备受高管和政客的诟病,他们指责做空机构动摇市场信心。在2008年金融危机期间,当各家银行的首席执行官纷纷谴责这种行为之后,监管方甚至临时禁止了金融股票的做空操作。

不过,这种做空策略可谓是屡试不爽,直接导致了公司股价的暴跌、高管的辞职,甚至是罪名。不过,如果股价不断上涨,做空操作的损失可能会成为一个无底洞,因此它的风险极高。例如,莱福特曾在2021年就网络热股游戏驿站(GameStop)叫板社交媒体Reddit分区Wall Street Bets。他认为狂热的股民将公司的估值推得过高。作为回应,Reddit用户发起了一场公众评论战,将莱福特定性为流氓,并通过推高游戏驿站股价迫使他退出了空头交易。

莱福特对《财富》杂志说,投资者可获取的各类说辞让做空机构的处境更加困难,也算是对他与Wall Street Bets之间这场对抗大戏的回应。他说:“信息池水很深,为削弱做空言论提供了更多助力。”

去年7月针对莱福特的民事和刑事指控加剧了这种操作的危险性。这些指控称,莱福特在公共报道中通过错报自家股票仓位来操控市场。不过,我们不禁要问,交易商在公开谈论某支股票之后还能持仓多长时间?(针对莱福特的指控包括他持有的多头和空头头寸)莱福特否认了这些指控。

莱福特说:“与市场端的回报[和]监管方相比,做空的风险可要大多了。”

经营 Orso Partners的空头内森·科皮卡表示,不确定的监管环境为激进做空操作带来了诸多不利环境。他对《财富》杂志说:“令我惊讶的是,做空操作领域并未出现重大禁令或降温。这跟我原本预料的差不多。”

“打砸抢”

可以预见的是,这种与市场常识向左的大额对赌会吸引一批特殊的群体。其中一位空头、善于言谈的马克·科赫兹指责激进做空操作是一种“打砸抢”。在这一过程中,交易商会进行空头交易,并通过公共宣传来谋取利益,而不是通过多头交易来应对经营不善公司。

尽管科赫兹称赞安德森曝光了“一些严重的欺诈行为”,但他依然批评了兴登堡的行事方式。他对《财富》杂志说:“我觉得这家公司更多的是在搞破坏,也给市场带来了巨大的波动。我对这种做法持怀疑态度。”

在他的告别信中,安德森称关闭公司没有明确的原因,而是写到“因为业务的强度和专注度而错失了其他事情以及我所珍视的人。”

兴登堡目前正在接受印度证券监管方的调查,原因是该公司发布了针对阿达尼集团的尖锐报告。阿达尼集团是一家印度公司,其所有者是印度顶级富豪之一。兴登堡称该集团“实施了企业史上最大的骗局”。兴登堡 1月初的最后一则报道则将目标瞄准了线上汽车经销商Carvana,不过,该公司股价迅速得到恢复,而且如今高于兴登堡调查结果发布之前的股价。

科赫兹和科皮卡对安德森“解散”兴登堡的公开声明表示质疑。有鉴于兴登堡似乎并不是一家吸收外部资本的公司,他们认为安德森可能只需暂停发布调查即可。科皮卡表示:“我不理解的是,安德森只需取消调查发布即可,为什么要退居二线呢?”

安德森并未回复采访请求。

激进做空操作可能依然是一项光鲜而又危险的业务,不过安德森的退出也算是敲响了警钟。科皮卡对《财富》杂志说:“从传承角度来看,就年轻人而言,安德森可能已经激励了众多20多岁的年轻人进入这一行业。不过,这并非是过家家,而是一项严肃的业务。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

前救护车司机内特·安德森最初于2020年闯入公众视野。当时,他实锤了电动汽车公司Nikola的视频造假。在该视频中,Nikola的卡车看起来正在靠自身动力前行,而真实情况是,车辆是在下坡路上滑行。安德森的揭发让这家公司的首席执行官锒铛入狱,也让安德森创建的做空机构——兴登堡研究公司(Hindenburg Research)成为了美国企业史上最令人畏惧的公司名之一。

1月15日,安德森宣布公司即将关停的消息标志着一个时代的结束,其知名做空机构存活了不到10年的时间。不过这期间,该公司发布了诸多揭露企业谎言和失职行为的尖锐报道,并经常性地让市场为之一震。兴登堡的这些调查由公司仅有的11名员工撰写,但通过X上的90万粉丝大肆传播。这些调查将目标瞄准了Block公司和阿达尼集团(Adani Group)这类公司,在这个网红股炒作盛行以及估值狂飙的年代,上述调查成为了做空操作的风向标。

兴登堡还帮助组建“激进”空头,一般是那些规模较小的公司,甚至是个人,这些空头会发起针对这些公司的公众宣传活动,以拉低其股价,这在华尔街和投资文化中十分常见。像安德森和安德鲁•莱福特创建的知名做空机构会娴熟地使用社交媒体或参加电视节目,再结合其调查记者兼股票交易商的身份,往往能在这一过程中赚的盆满钵满。

尽管无孔不入,但知名空头的日子或将进入倒计时状态。长期以来,很多公司高管对他们的交易手段不屑一顾,并充满疑虑。此外,大盘趋势和监管方也为做空操作带来了更大的压力。当前,莱福特正围绕一个重大法庭案件与司法部和证券交易委员会对峙。

将于2025年9月接受庭审的莱福特表示,这些对自己的指控带来了一种寒蝉效应。他对《财富》杂志说:“受此影响,三思而后行的风气席卷了整个行业。”

尽管其他知名激进做空机构依然处于活跃状态,包括浑水研究(Muddy Waters Research)的卡森·布洛克,但兴登堡的离开意味着该领域的江河日下,也意味着做空行业损失了一名最坚定的拥护者。

危机四伏的做空行业

做空机构已在美国市场潜行了数十年的时间,有一些因对抗大型集团而成为了华尔街传奇。最知名的案例可能莫过于投资公司尼克斯联合基金(Kynikos Associates)负责人吉姆·查诺斯,他在00年代初帮助扳倒了安然(Enron)。然而,做空机构一直备受高管和政客的诟病,他们指责做空机构动摇市场信心。在2008年金融危机期间,当各家银行的首席执行官纷纷谴责这种行为之后,监管方甚至临时禁止了金融股票的做空操作。

不过,这种做空策略可谓是屡试不爽,直接导致了公司股价的暴跌、高管的辞职,甚至是罪名。不过,如果股价不断上涨,做空操作的损失可能会成为一个无底洞,因此它的风险极高。例如,莱福特曾在2021年就网络热股游戏驿站(GameStop)叫板社交媒体Reddit分区Wall Street Bets。他认为狂热的股民将公司的估值推得过高。作为回应,Reddit用户发起了一场公众评论战,将莱福特定性为流氓,并通过推高游戏驿站股价迫使他退出了空头交易。

莱福特对《财富》杂志说,投资者可获取的各类说辞让做空机构的处境更加困难,也算是对他与Wall Street Bets之间这场对抗大戏的回应。他说:“信息池水很深,为削弱做空言论提供了更多助力。”

去年7月针对莱福特的民事和刑事指控加剧了这种操作的危险性。这些指控称,莱福特在公共报道中通过错报自家股票仓位来操控市场。不过,我们不禁要问,交易商在公开谈论某支股票之后还能持仓多长时间?(针对莱福特的指控包括他持有的多头和空头头寸)莱福特否认了这些指控。

莱福特说:“与市场端的回报[和]监管方相比,做空的风险可要大多了。”

经营 Orso Partners的空头内森·科皮卡表示,不确定的监管环境为激进做空操作带来了诸多不利环境。他对《财富》杂志说:“令我惊讶的是,做空操作领域并未出现重大禁令或降温。这跟我原本预料的差不多。”

“打砸抢”

可以预见的是,这种与市场常识向左的大额对赌会吸引一批特殊的群体。其中一位空头、善于言谈的马克·科赫兹指责激进做空操作是一种“打砸抢”。在这一过程中,交易商会进行空头交易,并通过公共宣传来谋取利益,而不是通过多头交易来应对经营不善公司。

尽管科赫兹称赞安德森曝光了“一些严重的欺诈行为”,但他依然批评了兴登堡的行事方式。他对《财富》杂志说:“我觉得这家公司更多的是在搞破坏,也给市场带来了巨大的波动。我对这种做法持怀疑态度。”

在他的告别信中,安德森称关闭公司没有明确的原因,而是写到“因为业务的强度和专注度而错失了其他事情以及我所珍视的人。”

兴登堡目前正在接受印度证券监管方的调查,原因是该公司发布了针对阿达尼集团的尖锐报告。阿达尼集团是一家印度公司,其所有者是印度顶级富豪之一。兴登堡称该集团“实施了企业史上最大的骗局”。兴登堡 1月初的最后一则报道则将目标瞄准了线上汽车经销商Carvana,不过,该公司股价迅速得到恢复,而且如今高于兴登堡调查结果发布之前的股价。

科赫兹和科皮卡对安德森“解散”兴登堡的公开声明表示质疑。有鉴于兴登堡似乎并不是一家吸收外部资本的公司,他们认为安德森可能只需暂停发布调查即可。科皮卡表示:“我不理解的是,安德森只需取消调查发布即可,为什么要退居二线呢?”

安德森并未回复采访请求。

激进做空操作可能依然是一项光鲜而又危险的业务,不过安德森的退出也算是敲响了警钟。科皮卡对《财富》杂志说:“从传承角度来看,就年轻人而言,安德森可能已经激励了众多20多岁的年轻人进入这一行业。不过,这并非是过家家,而是一项严肃的业务。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Former ambulance driver Nathan Anderson first burst into public attention in 2020, when he proved that electric vehicle company Nikola had faked a video to make it look like its trucks could move forward on their own, when in reality one was staged to roll down a hill. The exposé led to the company’s CEO going to jail and to Anderson’s short-selling firm, Hindenburg Research, becoming one of the most feared names in corporate America.

When Anderson announced last Wednesday that Hindenburg was closing shop, it marked the end of an era. His famed short-selling firm lasted less than a decade, but during that time, its scathing reports exposing corporate lies and ineptitude regularly jolted the market. Hindenburg’s investigations, compiled by a staff of just 11 and blasted out to 900,000 followers on X, took aim at the likes of Block and Adani Group and became a symbol of bear investing during a period of meme-stock mania and runaway valuations.

Hindenburg also helped make “activist” short-sellers—typically smaller firms, or even individuals, that wage public campaigns against companies to drive down their stocks—a fixture of Wall Street and investing culture. Deftly using social media and TV appearances, famous short-sellers like Anderson and Andrew Left combined the roles of investigative reporter and stock trader, often earning fat profits in the process.

Despite their outsize presence, the days of high-profile short-sellers may be numbered. Their trade has long been viewed with contempt and suspicion by many executives, and more recently short-selling has come under increasing pressure from both broader market trends and regulators. Currently, Left is battling the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission in a high-profile court case.

Left, who will face trial in September 2025, said that his indictment has produced a chilling effect. “It makes everyone think twice,” he told Fortune.

While other prominent activist short-sellers remain active, including Carson Block of Muddy Waters Research, Hindenburg’s departure means a further dwindling field and the loss of one of short-selling’s most visible advocates.

The perilous field of short-sellers

Short-sellers have prowled U.S. markets for decades, with some becoming Wall Street legends for taking on massive companies. The most famous example may be Jim Chanos, head of investment firm Kynikos Associates, helping take down Enron in the early 2000s. Still, short-sellers face constant criticism from executives and politicians who accuse them of shaking public confidence in the markets. During the financial crisis of 2008, regulators went so far as to temporarily ban the short-selling of financial stocks after bank CEOs decried the practice.

Still, the strategy has proved successful again and again, resulting in plummeting stocks, resignations, and even criminal charges. But because short positions can result in infinite losses if a share price keeps increasing, it involves a high degree of risk, such as when Left challenged the Reddit community Wall Street Bets on the meme stock GameStop in 2021. He argued the zealous crowd was wildly overvaluing the company. In response, the Redditors waged a war of public opinion to brand Left as a villain and force him out of his position by driving up the price of GameStop’s shares.

Left told Fortune the glut of discourse available to investors has made the job of the short-seller ever more difficult, a nod to his famous battle against Wall Street Bets. “The information pool is thick,” he said. “It adds more counterbalance to any short argument.”

July’s civil and criminal charges against Left, which allege that he manipulated markets by misrepresenting his share positions in public reports, have made the practice even more perilous, with questions remaining about how long traders should be expected to hold positions after publicly speaking about them. (The charges against Left include both long and short positions that he held.) Left has denied the charges.

“There’s a lot more risk than reward on the market front [and] the regulatory front,” said Left.

Nathan Koppikar, a short-seller who runsOrso Partners, says the uncertain regulatory environment has created unfavorable conditions for activist short-selling. “I’ve been surprised there has not been a bigger cessation or slowdown in short-selling,” he told Fortune. “This is what I would’ve expected to happen.”

‘Smash and grab’

Predictably, a trade that involves making large bets against the market’s consensus draws an idiosyncratic crowd. One short-seller, the outspoken Marc Cohodes, has criticized activist short-selling as “smash and grab,” where traders take short-term positions and profit off their public campaigns, rather than taking longer-term positions against troubled companies.

While Cohodes lauded Anderson for exposing “some great frauds,” he still chided firms like Hindenburg Research for their approach. “I view it more as destructive, and they bring huge volatility in the market,” he told Fortune. “Color me skeptical on the whole adventure.”

In his farewell letter, Anderson said there was no specific reason to close up shop, instead writing that “the intensity and focus has come at the cost of missing a lot of the rest of the world and the people I care about.”

Hindenburg is currently under investigation by an Indian securities regulator for the bruising report it published against Adani Group, a conglomerate run by one of India’s wealthiest men, which Hindenburg accused of “pulling the largest con in corporate history.” Hindenburg’s last report earlier in January targeted the online car dealership Carvana, though the stock’s price quickly recovered and is currently higher than what it was before Hindenburg published its investigation.

Both Cohodes and Koppikar questioned Anderson’s public announcement to “disband” Hindenburg. Noting that Hindenburg does not appear to operate as a firm taking outside capital, they argued that Anderson could instead have just paused his reports. “I don’t fully understand why someone would retire when they could just take a leave of absence from publishing,” Koppikar said.

Anderson did not respond to a request for an interview.

Activist short-selling may remain a glamorous, if imperiled, practice, but Anderson’s exit from the scene also serves as a cautionary tale. “From a legacy perspective, for younger people, he probably has inspired a lot of guys who are 20 years old to go out and do this,” Koppikar told Fortune. “But it’s not all fun and games,” he added. “This is a serious thing.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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